Retail Resilience and Capital Confidence Mark a Steady Industry Outlook
By: Jeffrey Rosenberg, Kenton McKeehan, Eric Zimmermann, and Mike Jordan
At ICSC 2025 in Las Vegas, retail real estate leaders showed cautious optimism amid strong capital markets and steady tenant demand. Retailers continue to expand despite economic uncertainty, adapting to tight space and evolving formats. Dive deeper into what drove the mood to reflect a mature, resilient industry focused on strategic growth.
Consumer confidence was up and recession expectations were down in latest surveys Read More >>
Retail Sales up nearly 7% in April as consumers stock up in anticipation of higher prices Read More >>
Retailers are turning the trade war into a sales event Read More >>
Gap Inc. expects tariffs could add as much as $300 million in incremental costs this year Read More >>
The Checkout Lane
Source: Retail Dive, Chain Store Age, Progressive Grocer
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy sounded upbeat about the company’s continued push into the grocery business. Jassy noted that Whole Foods has grown faster the grocery industry overall and noted that Whole Foods small format Daily Shop concept will be rolled out to more cities over time, after the launch in New York City exceeded expectations. The revamped Amazon Fresh prototype has shown progress versus the initial iteration of the banner.
Barnes & Noble continues their comeback with the announcement of 60 new stores set to open in 2025, with 4 already open in New York, Illinois, Florida, and Nebraska. Last year, the company opened 57 new stores and acquired the Colorado based book chain Tattered Covers.
Buona Beef is a Chicago institution serving up a unique regional sandwich known as Italian Beef, which has been made famous nationwide on the hit TV show The Bear. With over 30 locations open, the chain has set its sights on expansion beyond Chicagoland with a franchise program that bears fruit this September in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. That store will be followed by 10 locations in Texas over the next 5 years, as well as plans for new restaurants in Missouri and Wisconsin. All new Buona Beef locations will also feature The Original Rainbow Cone, a 5 flavor ice cream treat that has its roots in 1920s Chicago.
David’s Bridal opened a new “store of the future” in Delray Beach, Florida called Diamonds & Pearls. The store will have about one third of the same products as a typical David’s Bridal, but will also have exclusive items and brands and a new focus on in store technology.
Dick’s Sporting Goods has acquired rival Foot Locker in a $2.4 billion transaction. Dick’s plans for Foot Locker to continue operating as a standalone business. The deal will also give Dick’s its first exposure to international markets as Foot Locker is present in 20 countries. While Foot Locker’s business has struggled in recent years, Chairman Ed Stack assured analysts that the Dick’s has a clear line of sight into how to turn the Foot Locker brand back into a leader in sportswear.
Ikea will continue to open smaller format stores with the announcement of a 63,000 square foot store in the University Park neighborhood of Dallas. The smaller stores will have a wide array of products to buy in store, including food, but will also serve as a pickup point for online orders.
McDonalds is shutting down all 5 of its CosMc’s locations. The experimental beverage concept was first unveiled in 2023 and had stores in Illinois and Texas. McDonalds said it plans to test some of the more popular items from CosMc’s at McDonald’s restaurants beginning in June.
While Target’s sales and foot traffic has slowed considerably in 2025, the retailer remains upbeat on its expansion strategy with 300 new full sizestores planned over the next 10 years. The vast majority of these new stores will be in smaller cities such as Southern Pines, NC and Quincy, IL. The goal is for Target to be within 10 miles of 90% of the US population to better compete with rival Walmart.
Rite Aid continues to wind down its operations in bankruptcy court, with competitors like Walgreens, CVS, Albertsons, Kroger, and Giant Eagle buying the pharmacy assets of over 1,000 stores. Meanwhile, CVS has also reached a deal to buy 64 locations in the pacific Northwest, with plans to convert them to CVS stores.
The Vitamin Shoppe was sold to a pair of private equity firms by its previous owner, The Franchise Group. Kingswood Capital Management (owners of Cost Plus World Market) and Performance Investment Partners paid $195 million for the chain. The Franchise Group recently exited bankruptcy and continues to own Pet Supplies Plus.
Wonder, a delivery focused restaurant startup by former Walmart executive Marc Lore, is scaling up its growth plans with over 50 stores set to open in 2025. The chain currently has 45 stores located in the Northeastern United States, but did not disclose whether any new geographies will be part of this year’s growth. The move comes as the company closed on a $600 million funding round, bringing total investments in the company to over $1.3 billion since 2024.
The Big View
E-commerce was once seen as the biggest threat to our industry, but those calls have gotten significantly quieter in recent years as digital sales growth slows and physical stores still account for over three-fourths of the $5 trillion in annual retail sales. Read more about the resiliency of physical retail since the pandemic in this piece from Retail Dive’s Daphne Howland >>
How close do you pay attention to the posted sales tags at the grocery store versus what you were charged at the register? A new investigation by the Guardian across 12 states shows a consistent pattern of Kroger stores failing to remove sale pricing tags resulting in an average overcharge of 18% on 150 items. Read more here >>
Video of the Month:Video of the Month: Costco stock is now trading for over $1,000 per share and the warehouse club seems to be gaining even more steam in the face of tariffs and an uncertain economy. But perhaps the company’s biggest weapon in a competitive retail landscape? It’s multi-billion dollar private label, Kirkland Signature. Find out how Costco turned the tables to bring prestige to the once lowly store brand in this video from the Wall Street Journal >>>
By the Numbers
Brick and mortar continues to dominate
% of core retail sales by channel
From the Research Desk
It was a pleasure to be featured on JLL’s Where We Buy Podcast once again along with some of the best retail researchers in the business: Ana Leon of Nuveen, Laura Fullington of Tanger, and David Spawn of Brixmor. We discussed our expectations and takeaways from this year’s ICSC Conference in Las Vegas with James Cook. Listen here >>
Song of the Month: Pop star Harry Styles’ 2022 album Harry’s House was inspired by 80s new wave and the work of cult Japanese singer/songwriter Haruomi Hosono. On “As It Was”, he showcases these influences with a driving, almost Krautrock inspired beat and pulsing synthesizers reminiscent of a-ha’s classic “Take On Me”. A rare treat in a pop landscape that often stuck on autoplay. Watch here >>
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