Tariff Ruling Could Impact Consumer Spending ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­    ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­  

Issue #30 - February 2026

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By: Mike Jordan, Director of Research

Monthly Special

Tariff Ruling Could Impact Consumer Spending

  • The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that tariffs imposed last year by the administration were unconstitutional Read More >>
  • After a year defined by supply chain disruptions and logistical guesswork, manufacturers and retailers may finally be stepping into a period of greater predictability and control; while consumers hope that this will finally tamp down persistently high inflation
  • However, the administration announced a global 10% tariff under different powers, and may push that to 15%, leaving the status of previously negotiated trade deals in doubt Read More >>
  • Companies and consumers bear nearly 90% of tariff costs Read More >>
  • A range of companies, including retailers such as Costco, may be owed $175 billion in refunds
    Read More >>
  • Economists are skeptical whether the ruling will ease pricing for consumers Read More >>

The Checkout Lane

Source:  Retail Dive, Chain Store Age, Nation's Restaurant News

amazon

Shortly after we went to press on Issue 29, Amazon announced it would be closing all of its physical grocery stores under the “Fresh” and “Go” banners. An undisclosed number of those stores will be converted to Whole Foods Market locations. The company hasn’t given up on physical retail yet, as plans were recently revealed for a second location of its 200,000+ square foot hypermarket format in Oak Brook, Illinois.

dsw

DSW’s parent company Designer Brands has announced a simplified corporate structure which resulted in letting go an unspecified number of corporate employees. The company has struggled in recent years amid a high debt load and falling same store sales.

dutch_bros

Dutch Bros Coffee will continue its rapid expansion across the U.S. with plans to open at least 180 new stores in 2026. The company debuted in 7 states in 2025 and posted its 19th consecutive year of positive same store sales growth. The current fleet has over 1,100 Dutch Bros stores with plans to reach 2,029 by 2029.

eddie bauer

Eddie Bauer has filed for bankruptcy and will close all 175 of its remaining stores in the U.S. and Canada. However, the brand will continue to exist as it pivots to licensing its name to wholesalers and e-commerce platforms. Eddie Bauer merchandise will also continue to be available at JCPenney, whose parent company, Catalyst Brands, also controls Eddie Bauer’s IP.

natural grocers

Natural Grocers, a Colorado-based chain for organic groceries and supplements, is expanding its presence in the Midwest with the announcement of a new store in Lake Geneva, Wisconsin. In addition to the Wisconsin store, the chain is planning up to 8 new locations in 2026 to bring their footprint to over 170 stores across 22 states.

saks_off5th

Saks will exit the off price business by shuttering all but 12 of its Off Fifth stores. The remaining locations will be devoted to selling excess inventory from Saks Global’s other banners as opposed to a discrete off price strategy. The company will also close as many as 8 full-line Saks Fifth Avenue stores.

starbucks

Starbucks has been undergoing some transformation in its store operations in recent years, but that will not hinder the company’s future growth plans as the coffee giant announced plans for up to 175 new U.S. locations this year. And while, it may feel like you can’t walk 10 feet without tripping over a Starbucks, the company said it sees a long term opportunity to open up to 5,000 additional stores in the U.S. Meanwhile, the company continues to remodel many of its existing stores with plans to complete 1,000 store “uplifts” by the end of the year while adding 25,000 café seats to its existing fleet.

target-1

Target has seven new stores slated to open in March. All but one location will be at or near its full-size prototype of 148,000 square feet. Stores set to open will be in California, Missouri, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Texas. The new store in Jersey City will be a smaller 40,000 square foot location catering to commuters. The company, which also announced a number of new appointments to its c-suite ,while it plans to cut 500 corporate roles while “significantly” investing more in store labor and hours.

walmart-1

Walmart is the largest grocer in the United States, and their dominance reached new highs as market research firm dunnhumby recently measured the company’s share of sales coming from groceries at a record 72%! The study went on to note a general shift in grocery shopping behavior towards cheaper options like mass market retailers and dollar stores.

wendys

Following a tough year for fast food giant Wendy’s, the company announced will be closing around 300 locations in the U.S. This news follows reported same store sales declines over 11% in 2025. For reference, Wendy’s only saw a 4% decline in sales at the height of the 2020 pandemic.

The Big View

vidiots

Following the revival of record stores, younger consumers still want more analogue experiences and are now primed to revive another retail format thought to be extinct: the video store. While the overall market for DVD sales declined in 2025, the rate slowed significantly. Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble is seeing growth in movie disc sales and some small businesses that have hung on in Los Angeles are now reporting big jumps in foot traffic, sales, and rental numbers. Cerys Davies of the Los Angeles Times dropped by to see what is driving this phenomenon. Read More >>

pland_indie-2

Economic metrics over the last few years paint a mixed picture of the health of the consumer. Despite rising debt burdens, low confidence scores, and higher prices; consumers are still spending. One thing that seems certain is that while spending may be up, the patterns are showing a significant shift towards value as people become more vigilant in how and where they spend their money. Daphne Howland of Retail Dive talks to some of the leading observers of consumer behavior to find out what this all means for 2026. Read More >>

chinese restaurant

Video of the Month: Here’s a fun fact; there are more Chinese restaurants in the U.S. than McDonald’s and Burger Kings combined. Not only that, most dishes served at these establishments were created in this country to appeal to American palates. So, how did this cuisine become the most popular restaurant food in the country? This video from Business Insider takes a deep dive into the world of fortune cookies, Peking duck, and emerging trends in Chinese-American food. Watch Here >>

By the Numbers

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Source: Wall Street Journal

From the Research Desk

I was recently a panel guest on James Cook’s excellent podcast Where We Buy. The episode focused on recent research from ICSC showing that the generation with the most buying power right now is Generation X, those born between 1965-1980 (this is the most common definition of the cohort, though some researchers have different time frames). As a member of the later half of that generation, I’ll just say we aren’t used to having that kind of influence.

 

However, the numbers make sense. Most of us are on the back half of our careers, which means we have some savings, if we planned carefully. And many of us are still raising kids while some of us are responsible for taking care of our Silent Generation parents. Add all that up and we are doing a lot of spending!

 

When Gen X first started being a “thing”, I was in high school and dutifully read Douglas Coupland’s novel that gave us our name. I don’t know how it holds up in 2026, but it was primarily about what it was like to be coming of age in the late 80s and early 90s while Boomers were in the ascendency and financialization was transforming the economy. We were a small generation, raised by parents that largely let us roam free range and when we were at home, we were likely glued to the TV as there may not have been anyone else around with both parents working.
 

So now that we make up over 30% of consumer spending, while being just 19% of the population, how can retailers adapt? Well, for one, we prefer to shop in store but also value the convenience of omnichannel options. Its crucial that retailers prioritize the in store experience in a way that is authentic, as we may be the last generation that resists social media influencers in marketing. We grew up in third places like the mall so aspects of placemaking become tantamount in importance. For us, connection happens in the real world, even if we are just as phonepilled as everyone else.

There is another aspect of marketing to Gen X that can have additional benefits for retailers. As I noted above, young people are flocking to video stores and showing a growing preference for physical media. 80s and 90s nostalgia is everywhere these days, being driven by younger generations that feel they missed out on the pre-digital world and want to hold on to what they can from those years. Of course, we were also raised deep in nostalgia culture with things like Nick at Nite and the lounge music revival so that impulse to hold on to a past we never knew resonates deeply. A focus on Gen X may just bring in Gen Z and younger customers as well.

 

Mike Jordan

RETAIL MEME OF THE MONTH

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SONG OF THE MONTH

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LISTEN NOW

Song of the Month: For those who were around in the 80s, you’ll remember Prince as a multi-talented force of nature, releasing genre-bending albums every year packed with memorable songs that crossed rock, funk, and R&B in new ways that came to define the Minneapolis Sound. And what couldn’t fit on his albums turned into hits for artists like The Bangles, Sinead O’Connor, and Chaka Khan. Following his biggest commercial success in 1984 with Purple Rain, Prince took inspiration for the follow up from the emerging 60s revival scene in L.A. known as the Paisley Underground which spawned acts such as The Rain Parade, The Three O’Clock, and The Dream Syndicate. Prince's take on these bands' technicolor approach to music is best heard on the 1985 song “Raspberry Beret” Watch the video here >>

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